Recently, I had an opportunity to be present at a very high level meeting between a U.S. Congressman, a Governor and the President of a Pharmaceutical Company. At that meeting the topic of Avian Flu came up, and a discussion ensued regarding our readiness for a pandemic.

It was an interesting discussion regarding our dependence upon only five companies to produce enough vaccine to protect the entire world. In a discussion at a different venue, the reality that three of the five companies are NOT based in the United States became a central theme. According to one of the participants in this discussion, when asked if the pharma companies would provide enough vaccine immediately for our country, the representatives reportedly pointed out that they have other countries to whom they owed their loyalty first.

It was clear that, in order to even begin to be ready for a pandemic, production manufacturing capabilities needed to be built and each production plant would cost approximately $300M. All of that seemed not to be a problem. The problem, however, was the timeline. Another case of Avian flu was identified today, and the projected completion date for the needed facilities would be minimally four to five years away if we started to work on them now.

So, are we ready? No. Could we be ready? Yes, but not for several years. In the 1918 pandemic the number of deaths world wide ranged between 50 and 100 million people at a time when the world population was considerably less than it is now and it clearly wasn't flat . . . with thousands of international flights moving across our continents every day.

The answer? Be optimistic, hope for a little luck and say a little prayer that someone "has our backs."